机器人保姆的迅速兴衰

#The Speedy Rise and Fall of Robot Babysitters

Automation has given rise to new jobs in robot minding—but the flurry of opportunities may be short lived.
自动化操作在机器人管理上提出新工作要求,然而这次机遇的热潮将是短暂的。
作者:ZARA STONE

During the winter of 2017, an 18-year old college student named Canon Reeves spent much of his time trailing a knee-high robot around Fayetteville, Arkansas, as it delivered Amazon packages to students. The robot, created by a start-up called Starship Technologies in 2014,is basically a cooler on wheels; it uses radars, ultrasonic sensors, and nine cameras to make deliveries. Reeves’s job was to monitor how it handled various terrains, field comments from the public, and press the off switch if necessary. He also took photos; many students asked for selfies with the bot, he said. “People would also ask if it could deliver beer.” It couldn’t.
在2017年冬季,阿肯色州F市附近,一个叫canon Reeves的18岁大学生花费大量时间在一个膝盖高的机器人身上,因为他向学生们递送亚马逊快递包裹。这个机器人由一家叫做starship科技的初创公司在2014年创制。这款机器人主要是轮胎上的冷却剂(习语么?),配置了雷达、超声波传感器和九个摄像头,用于分派快递。Reeves的工作是监督机器人如何指挥各种地形、来自公众的各种评论,以及在必要时按下关闭开关。他也拍些照片,许多学生询问是否可以用这款机器自拍,他说,“人们也想咨询机器人是否可以派送啤酒。” 不可以。

As advances in autonomous technology have placed a huge number of self-driving machines on our roads and sidewalks, a side hustle has materialized in recent years: robot-babysitting. In Phoenix, human attendants will remotely monitor Google’s upcoming Waymo robo-taxis, using the car’s cameras to evaluate and adapt to passenger or road challenges. State safety regulations typically require that autonomous vehicles be accompanied at all times by humans. These professionals’ job titles range from “robot handler” to “safety driver,” but they have essentially the same responsibilities: monitoring robot behavior for safety and performance, and answering questions about the technology.
随着自主技术的进步,不少自动驾驶机器已现身道路和人行道,近年来一方面的讨论已明确:机器人保姆。在p市,人类工作人员逐渐不再监督谷歌即将到来的Wayno机器人出租车,它使用车载摄像头评估和适应行人和道路变化。政府安全条例特别要求自动驾驶车辆始终要人类伴随。这些专业人士的工作主题从“机器人处理者”到“安全驾驶者”,但它们具有本质上相同的责任:监督机器人行为的安全和专业性,和回答技术上的问题。

The unusual nature of the job lends it some cachet, despite the mundane nature of the work itself. (Job requirements posted by the driverless-car start-up Cruise Automation include: “Able to drive or spend time sitting in a car for six to eight hours a day.”) “I’ll tell my grandkids someday!” Reeves told me. The pay is good, too. Starship Technologies starts its robot handlers at $15 an hour, and Cruise pays $23 an hour, more than double California’s minimum wage of $11. Still, many of these above-minimum-wage jobs aren’t likely to be around for too much longer.
这份不同寻常的工作提供了一些信号,尽管工作本身平凡而自然。(由无人驾驶汽车初创公司cruise automation的工作要求包括:“一天能够开车或者坐在车里6到8小时。”)Reeves告诉我,“总有一天我会告诉我的孙辈!”工作薪酬也很好。Starship technologies以每小时15美元雇佣机器人操控者,cruise每小时支付23美元,是加州11美元最低工资的一倍以上。许多这样超过最低工资的工作不可能持续太长时间。

Broadly speaking, robot-babysitting jobs fall under the umbrella of careers in automation, which include maintenance, engineering, and programming. The demand for people with this skill set is considerable, with an expected 20 million to 50 million new jobs expected in this category by 2030, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. In the year that ended in June 2018, the number of postings on Indeed.com’s recruitment boards advertising positions in automation had almost tripled since the year ending in June 2016.
宽泛地讲,机器人保姆工作被归入自动化操作的职业伞中,包括维修、工程和编程。根据麦肯锡全球研究中心预计,到2030年有2到5千万新工作并要求人们具有组合工作技能。在2018年六月底,indeed网的招聘栏目上打自动化操作职位广告的检索量是2016年6月底的近乎三倍。

Automation workers include computer scientists, IT workers, and administrators. “Those people are in scarcity, and there’s an extreme demand,” Mike Ramsey, a research director at Gartner, said. But they also include less skilled workers—college students, like Reeves, or others without a degree. As autonomous technology gets more sophisticated, Ramsey expects to see a bifurcation of demand for these robot-keepers. Even as demand increases more technical roles—AI analysts, systems testers, and vehicle technicians—advances in tech and loosening legislation will lessen the need for blue-collar robot roles, like Reeves’ job with Starship Technologies. “We are in this squishy period where the human has to be heavily involved in testing, and that is likely to end,” Ramsey said.
自动技术工作者包括电脑科学家、IT工作者和管理员。Gartner公司的研究主任Mike称“这些人手短缺,具有极端的需求。”但他们仍包括一些低技术工人——想Reeves或其他没有取得学位的大学生。随着自主技术变得更加复杂ramsey期望这些机器人看守者的需求分开。如要求提高更多技术角色——人工智能分析师、系统测试员和车辆技术员——以改进技术和法律松开将减少蓝领机器人角色的需求,想Reeves在starship的工作。Ramsey说“我们正处在人类不得不卷入测试的时期,这可能就要结束了。”

In some cases, companies have already managed to get rid of their robot babysitters. Over the last year, a 34-year-old entrepreneur named David Rodriguez spent hundreds of hours following a machine called the KiwiBot around UC Berkeley’s campus while it delivered Soylent, Chipotle, and Red Bull to students.
在一些案例中,一些公司已设法摆脱他们的机器人保姆(业务)。去年,在Berkeley分校校园,一位叫做David的34岁企业家花费数百小时跟随KiwiBot机器人,当它派送soylent、快餐和红牛给学生时。

Created in 2017 by a group of Colombian entrepreneurs at Launch, an accelerator program based at Berkeley, the KiwiBot exhibits Pixar-like sensibilities. To retrieve orders, the app prompts students to give the robot a thumbs-up or a wave; the bot’s digital eyes will wink or roll depending on its mood. Rodriguez, who heads business development for the start-up, was tasked, early on, with monitoring the KiwiBot for problems—even carrying it, should the motors fail. Since April 2018, though, the KiwiBot has been largely babysitter-free, and the majority of human interactions involve technical checks and loading food into the bot. To eliminate that grunt work, the team is developing a restaurant robot to collect and load orders—which could happen as soon as 2019. However, Rodriguez assured me that his staff won’t be out of work. Everyone holds dual roles in the company; greater bot autonomy just means employees will shift their focus to accounting, engineering, and design.
KiwiBot是位于Berkeley的一个加速器项目,由一群哥伦比亚的企业家发起,该项目展现着皮克斯般的感觉。为了取回订单,该软件提示学生们给机器人一个向上的拇指动作或者一个挥手动作,机器人的数字化眼睛将依据其情绪眨眼或滚动。自从2018年4月起,kiwibot称为主要的自由保姆,主要的人类互动包括技术检查和向机器中装载货物。为了剔除枯燥的工作,该团队开发了一个餐馆般的机器人收集和装载订单——这将在2019年发生。但是R向我保证他的员工将不会被辞退。每个人在公司中有着双重角色,较好的机器人自治意味着员工将他们的注意力集中于会计、工程和设计。

Some observers note that certain kinds of robot-babysitting—the kind that is monotonous and doesn’t require much education—can make for thankless work. The safety drivers who sit in self-driving cars have described their roles as “exhausting” and “demanding,” and many told me about the constant pressure to stay hyper-alert at all times. “It’s incredibly hard to sit in a chair and stare at a computer without doing anything for eight hours,” Ramsey said. “But you do not need a Ph.D. to do it.” In March 2018, the field of robot babysitting took a beating when a self-driving Uber in Tempe, Arizona, hit a 49-year-old named Elaine Herzberg. Dashcam footage showed that Rafaela Vasquez, the car’s safety driver, had not been looking at the road when the accident occurred. Investigators are deciding if Vasquez will face manslaughter charges.
一些观察着注意到某些机器人保姆可以做机械性费力工作,即这种无变化和不需要许多培训的工作。那些坐在自驾车里安全的司机形容他们的工作是费力和要求高的,许多人告诉我经常压力持续处于超报警状态。Ramsey说“除了坐在椅子上盯着电脑屏幕而不做其他事情八个小时是非常艰难的,”“但你不需要一个博士来做这个。”在2018年三月亚利桑那州T市,一辆自驾Uber车撞上了49岁的Elaine,这在机器人保姆领域引发震动。镜头显示该汽车的安全司机V在事故发生时没有看着路面。调查者正在决定是否V面临谋杀罪名。

Following the accident, a number of executives began pushing to shelve the program altogether, according to the New York Times. Uber suspended all its self-driving tests in the United States, and many of its 400-plus test drivers had to scramble for work. In May, it laid off all Arizona safety drivers, followed by more layoffs in July in Pittsburgh and San Francisco, which dropped Uber’s total test-driver pool to about 55 people. Despite this, Uber said testing will resume this summer and is actively recruiting self-driving-truck drivers and autonomous-vehicle engineers. “Our team remains committed to building safe self-driving technology, and we look forward to returning to public roads in the coming months,” said an Uber spokeswoman.
事故后,根据纽约时报报到许多高管一起推动项目搁置。Uber暂停其在美国的所有自动驾驶测试,超过400名测试司机不得不争夺工作。在5月,Uber解雇所有亚利桑那州安全驾驶员,随后六月份更多在匹兹堡和旧金山的司机被解雇,Uber的测试司机总共剩下约55人。尽管如此,Uber称测试将在今年夏天继续开始,将积极招聘自动驾驶卡车和自动驾驶车辆工程师。“我们的团队决心建立安全的自动驾驶技术,我们期待在接下来的几个月回到公共道路上(测试)。”Uber发言人称。

Robot babysitting was the first job that Jordan Zagerman, 21, ever held. In 2017, while completing an associate’s degree at San Francisco State University, he followed a delivery robot around San Francisco’s Parkmerced neighborhood, supplying condoms, chips, and soda on demand on behalf of a company called Dispatch. He also managed Dispatch’s Snapchat account and designed branded sweatshirts. Then, after four weeks, came the “it’s not you, it’s me” email. “Over the weeks, people were progressively less surprised with the robot,” he said. “Every robot handler was let go.” The experience convinced Zagerman that he needed to better prepare himself for the future. That fall, he moved to Philadelphia to start a bachelors degree in user-experience design at Drexel University; when he graduates, he hopes to return to Silicon Valley, but this time for a more white-collar, technical position. “I left,” he told me, “to make sure I wouldn’t get phased out with autonomy.”
机器人保姆曾经是21岁Jordan的第一份工作。2017年,在完成旧金山州立大学论文后,他跟随旧金山附近parkmerced公司的投递机器人,为一家叫dispath的公司供应避孕套、薯片和苏打水。他也管理dispath的Snapchat账户以及设计带纹饰的卫衣。然后四周后,收到一份题为“错不在你,在我”的邮件。“一周前,人们逐渐对机器人失去兴趣,”他说,“每个机器人控制者都走了。”这份经历使Z确信他需要为为了更好准备自己。那年秋天,他前往费城开始在D大学攻读用户体验设计学士学位,他希望在毕业后回到硅谷,但这次寻找一份更加接近白领的技术职位。他告诉我“我离开了,确信我不会因为自动技术而淘汰。”

McKinsey estimates 10 million to 800 million jobs globally could be lost to automation by 2030. In the long term, it’s ine一份vitable that robot-babysitting gigs will go the way of elevator operators and lamplighters. But they’ll also birth new robot-related roles. “A huge number of jobs will be created as autonomous vehicles are loosed into the environment,” Ramsey said. In 2016, Bosch started training students from Schoolcraft College, a community college in Michigan, in autonomous-vehicle repair; Toyota has trained students in maintenance as well. “We might even see a return to low-level jobs where people come and fuel the car for you,” Ramsey said. “Until we can wirelessly charge, someone needs to refuel them.” The hardest-to-automate industries, as it happens, are the ones that require looking after humans: childcare, education, health-care aides. Robot babysitters might feel like they have scored the job of the future. But in fact, real babysitters might be better positioned.
麦肯锡估计到2030年全球有一千万到8亿工作被自动技术淘汰。从长远来看,机器人保姆这一职业将不可避免得像电梯操作员和点灯人一样消失。但他们同样诞生新的机器人关系。“随着自动驾驶车辆投入环境中,大量工作岗位将出现。”ramsey说。在2016年,Bosch开始训练SC大学(密歇根周的一所社区大学)的学生自动驾驶车辆维修。丰田也在训练学生维修。“我们可能看到人们来给你的汽车加油的低级别工作”ramsey说。“直到我们可以无充电,一些人需要补给燃料。”正如其发生的,最难向自动化转型的行业是那些看护人类的工作:儿童托管、教育、卫生保健助理。机器人保姆可能感觉他们赢得了未来工作。但实际上真正的保姆可能被放在更好的职位上。

ZARA STONE is a writer and reporter whose work has appeared on the BBC and in The Guardian and Psychologies Magazine.
翻译:chousei,努力学习的小白

FROM: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2018/08/robot-babysitters/567691/